Patna. On Saturday, there was a chance of the inauguration ceremony of 1,117 bed hospitals built at a cost of Rs 765.03 crore of Patna Medical College and Hospital. Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, the manner in which he was getting off the car and joining hands with the leaders and officials and taking a bouquet, it seemed that he was very happy. Whenever Nitish Kumar returns to Raunak, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav starts to see restless and disgrace. In fact, the Modi government’s decision to conduct caste census has returned a smile on Nitish Kumar’s face. At the same time, the smile has disappeared from the faces of RJD and Congress leaders of the opposition grand alliance. In such a situation, we know that in Bihar, once again Nitish Kumar is going to play big.
After 94 years, the Modi government has taken a historic step towards caste census for the first time in independent India. It is necessary to understand the strategy behind this decision and its political implications and its impact on the complex caste politics of Bihar. According to experts, caste -based politics is not new in Bihar. The politics here has always revolved around caste equations. The caste survey conducted by Nitish Kumar’s government in the year 2023 had clarified that the other backward class (OBC) and the most backward classes (EBC) are 63% in the state’s population, while the upper castes are 15.52% and Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes are more than 21%.
Will Tejashwi Yadav’s caste card not run this time?
This survey was placed by RJD and Tejashwi Yadav at the center of their social justice agenda, whose slogan was ‘as much as the population, as much participation’. Rahul Gandhi and Congress also made it an issue at the national level, making it a sharp weapon in Bihar politics. But now, when the central government announced to make the caste census a part of the upcoming census, this issue seems to be slipping from the hands of the opposition. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnav called it a constitutional decision taken keeping it in mind the social fabric, but political experts are considering it to be the masterstroke of the NDA for the Bihar election.
Why RJD is disgraced and restless?
The RJD, which was the basis of the agenda of its social justice, has been the most visible due to this decision. Tejashwi Yadav has termed it as a victory for himself and Lalu Prasad Yadav, but a frustration is evident in his rhetoric. He said, ‘BJP will now take credit for it, but Lalu Yadav has fought the fight.’ This statement is an indication that the RJD is afraid that this issue may now move out of their identity to NDA, especially BJP and JDU.
RJD’s concern is not unnecessary. Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav were both in the race to take credit for the 2023 caste survey in Bihar, but now this decision of the central government has given Nitish Kumar and the NDA a strong negative. Nitish, who has already shown his commitment to the survey, can now be stronger by becoming a part of the alliance applying it at the national level. This is a major setback for RJD, as his OBC-Muslim vote bank, which was united on this issue, can now move towards NDA.
This decision of the Modi government is not a hurry taken. This is part of a well thought out strategy, which has many dimensions.
First, this decision snatches the biggest weapon of the opposition and blits the edge of his neoractive. Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav, who used to talk about caste census in every rally, can no longer claim that only their parties are friendly to the backward.
Second, the decision meets the demand of NDA allies, such as JDU and LJP (Ram Vilas), which had been in its favor for a long time. This strengthens the solidarity of the alliance.
Third and most important, this decision can turn the complex caste equations of Bihar in favor of NDA. Given the huge number of OBC and EBC voters in Bihar, the BJP feels that with this decision it can bring non-Yadav OBC and EBC voters into its court, which was earlier bent towards parties like RJD and Samajwadi Party. The victory with the support of OBC voters in the Haryana assembly elections has given BJP more confidence on this strategy.
However, this decision is not free from risks for BJP. The BJP, which has been talking about rising above the caste on the basis of Hindutva and nationalism for a long time, can create contradiction in its own nectar. Some analysts are seeing this as an inclination from BJP’s ‘Kamandal’ politics to ‘Mandal’ politics. If the figures of caste census are more complicated or controversial than expected, then it can be reverse for BJP. For example, if the OBC population turns out to be more than 52%, the demand for removal of the 50% limit of reservation may intensify, which will not be easy for the BJP to implement.