What will change with caste census?
The debate of caste -wise census is no longer limited to social justice, it has now become the central part of the strategy of political parties. The raised caste equations in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the displeasure of the OBC voters indicate the activeness of the government around the caste census. Now the question is why BJP changed its stand?
By 2019, the BJP had prepared a social alliance with OBC, Dalit and tribal communities. But in 2024, this alliance looked adopted. The real reason for this can be understood by the state -wise NDA due to the damage done in the election. In the 2024 general election compared to 2019, the vote received by the NDA showed a lot of damage in the OBC and backward classes.
According to the data, the NDA suffered heavy losses in OBC and Dalit communities in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The NDA of other OBC community in Bihar was 50% in 2019, which declined to 29% in 2024 i.e. 21% declined. Similarly, the support of Kurmi-Koyri class in Bihar declined from 56% to 44%, which is 12% decline while both these castes were in favor of BJP.
NDA’s serious shock in Uttar Pradesh
NDA also suffered a serious shock in Uttar Pradesh. The support of other OBCs declined from 49 percent to 36 percent i.e. 13 percent declined. While the support of the Kurmi-Koyi vote bank fell from 53 percent to 34 percent i.e. 19 percent declined. In Bihar and UP, the NDA lost 19 percent in the Dalit (such as Jatav, Dusadh, Pasi etc.) community in Bihar and UP. It decreased from 40% to 21%.
On the other hand, India alliance benefited a big benefit in all these classes. In this 2024 election, it got a 9% lead in other OBC community in this 2024 election as compared to the 2019 general election. In UP, there was a profit of 20% in Kurmi-Kori category, 16% gains in other OBC category, and a tremendous increase of 28% in the Dalit classes of UP-Bihar. These figures clearly show that the BJP’s social alliance between the OBC and the Dalit classes weakened and the India alliance has redeemed the opportunity.
What will change with caste census?
After 1931, there is no caste -wise census in India. SC/ST’s population figures are there, but not OBC, the reservation policy remained unclear. Impressive OBC castes (eg Yadav, Kurmi) got more benefits. Weak OBC castes were marginalized. Many political parties believe and many times from Parliament to outside, the issue has also been discussed that the socio-economic status of many OBC castes has become so better that they can be out of the reservation list.
Also, the Rohini Commission formed in 2017 had suggested that sub-categories should be made in the OBC category so that the weak castes can get more benefit but the report has not been made public till date. It is believed that the reason for this is the fear of conflict between the impressive OBC castes (eg Yadav) and the BJP’s traditional vote bank.
Try to connect these castes together
With the consent of the caste -wise census, the BJP is trying to connect castes like Maurya, Kushwaha, Nishad, Kahar. EBC vote bank (43%) of leaders like Nitish Kumar should be dent. The Yadav-centric leadership of Mandal parties (RJD, SP) should be challenged. However, it also threatens. If quota is redistributed, the traditional castes of BJP like Brahmin, Thakur, Baniya may be angry. Kurmi and other powerful OBCs in many states (UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh) are already connected to BJP, they can also harm the BJP.
Cast census is becoming the axis of politics
Actually, the strategy now shows politics moving towards Mandal 2.0. Jativar census is no longer the exercise of data, but is becoming the axis of politics. This can lead to a wave of new polarization in OBC. If the demand for Kota Vidin Kota increases, then this will give a direct challenge to the politics of the party’s advocate parties and the BJP will get a chance to maintain a new social alliance through small OBC groups. Party experts believe that the empowerment of the weak OBC class, the equitable revival of reservation quota and the management of the traditional vote bank will only balance the right balance which will determine the direction of politics of 2029.